About The Process
Finding seeds in Muck is a challenge. Using some mods however we can help aid us in our efforts of searching through the vast universe of seeds.
Please consult this guide What Mucks Rarest Seed Looks Like?!?! regarding the rarest seed in Muck to find more information on the general process I use.
Just How Rare?!
0.002%0.002%The Chances Of This Happening Are 0.001999%!The Chances Of This Happening Are 0.001997%!
The spear has a 3% chance to spawn in chief chests; Slight increase from the nightblade weapon that spawns in caves (Check out my Spawn In Caves Seeds?! guide) and has a 0.1% chance to spawn in caves.
In order to have three villages who all have chief spears, we can do some math to find out the rarity.
A single chief chest has a chance to contain a chief spear at a 3% rate. Lets convert this to a 97/100 chance of not getting a spear. The chance of not getting this outcome three times in a row is (97/100)^3 = 912673/1000000.
We're looking for the probability that not getting the spear three times in a row doesn't occur, so our final answer is 912673/1000000 = 87327/1000000 = 0.087327% or ≈ 0.09%.
However, we also need to include the nightblade which has a 0.1% chance to spawn in caves. Since we are only gathering information on a single nightblade, lets just keep it 0.1%. To get the probability of two events occurring together, we need to multiply the two events together: (87327/1000000) * (1/10) = 87327/10000000 = 0.0087327% or ≈ 0.009%.
3S+1N CONCLUSION: For three chief spears and a nightblade, the chances of this happening are 0.0087%!
Future Math:For the future, if we where to calculate the chances of three chief spears and two & three nightblades on the same seed, we would do the following. We already know three spears are a 0.087327% chance, now we need to find the chance of two and three nightblades. A single cave chest has a chance to contain a chief spear at a 0.1% rate. Lets convert this to a 99.99/100 chance of not getting a spear. Two nightblades: The chance of not getting this outcome two times in a row is (99.9/100)^2 = 998001/1000000. The final answer is 1999/1000000 = 0.001999 chance to have 2 nightblades on a single seed. To get the probability of two events occurring together, we need to multiply the two events together: (87327/1000000) * (1999/1000000) = 0.001999% or ≈ . Three nightblades: The chance of not getting this outcome three times in a row is (99.9/100)^3 = 1000/2997. The final answer is 1997/1000000 = 0.001997 chance to have 3 nightblades on a single seed. To get the probability of two events occurring together, we need to multiply the two events together: (87327/1000000) * (1997/1000000) = 0.001997% or ≈ . 3S+2N CONCLUSION: For three chief spears and a nightblade, 3S+3N CONCLUSION: For three chief spears and a nightblade,
How Many Of These Seeds Exist?!
Lets gather some information we found. 3S+1N Is an 0.0087% chance.
3S+2N Is an 0.001999% chance.
3S+3N Is an 0.001997% chance.There exists a max seed count of 4294967294 numeric combinations. We find this by using the max 32-bit integer which is 2147483647 and times it by two since Muck can use negative integers. Using letters in muck DOES count to this number being muck's code hashes the word to a number between -2147483647 and 2147483647. You can see how this works here[dotnetfiddle.net] .
So using some probability, 1−(1−p)10 where p=0.01 (1%), we can calculate the ≈ max amount of these worlds to exists within the given chances of the event happening.
3S+1N: 1-(1-(0.0087/100))4294967294 = −4.25760108×109 ≈ 468.110 ≈ 468 Worlds Contain 3S+1N.
CONCLUSION: Only ≈ 468 Worlds Contain Triple Chiefs Spear + Night Blade's.
The Spice
Using some mods, I created a way to automatically generate a world, check if there exists a chest containing a chiefs spear, check if there exists a chest containing a nightblade, record seed if both are true, and repeat. Below are seeds that contain both three chief spears and a nightblade from searching through 500,000 randomly generated seeds.
If you are interested in Nightblade seeds, you can check out my World Record BEST Muck Seed! guide for the world record closest Nightblades to spawn seeds.
If you are interested in Chief Spear seeds, you can check out my World Record BEST 1.3X Muck Seed! guide for the world record closest Chief Spear's to spawn seeds.
[31Jul21] Record Triple ChiefsSpear + Nightblade Seed: -937783676
[06Aug21] Triple ChiefsSpear + Nightblade Seed: -21469866
[08Aug21] Triple ChiefsSpear + Nightblade Seed: -116547141
(1N3S) Seed Dump:
◉ [09Aug21] 630619213
◉ [09Aug21] 96160968
◉ [09Aug21] 244097205
◉ [06Sep21] 864963672
◉ [06Sep21] 920852613
◉ [06Sep21] -644552321
◉ [06Sep21] 244097205
◉ [06Sep21] 796414524
◉ [06Sep21] -776561060
◉ [08Sep21] -999906587
◉ [09Sep21] 103871562
◉ [09Sep21] -183440571
◉ [09Sep21] -344405603
◉ [09Sep21] 546275184
◉ [11Sep21] -825661280
Accepting Requests!
Please leave me a seed request in the comments or friend me to explain details!
Source: https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=2567955972
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